Louisville Report

Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Notre Dame

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Fighting Irish for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Matthew McGavic

Oct 7, 2023; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals running back Isaac Guerendo (23) runs the ball against Avg. Time of Possession defensive lineman Rylie Mills (99) during the second half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Louisville defeated Notre Dame 33-20. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images
Oct 7, 2023; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals running back Isaac Guerendo (23) runs the ball against Avg. Time of Possession defensive lineman Rylie Mills (99) during the second half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Louisville defeated Notre Dame 33-20. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images / Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images
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LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (3-0, 1-0 ACC) is set to face Notre Dame (3-1) on Saturday, Sept. 28 at 3:30 p.m. EST at Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend, Ind. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Fighting Irish:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

- Rankings:

ND

UofL

AP/USA TODAY

16th/14th

15th/17th

SOS

47th

124th

SOR

36th

22nd

SP+

11th

12th

FPI

9th

11th

Sagarin

8th

19th

Kelley Ford

9th

13th

CFB Insiders

9th

13th

- Offensive Statistics:

ND

UofL

Total Offense

55th (412.0)

14th (502.3)

Passing Yards Allowed

45th (6.36)

4th (8.42)

Scoring Offense

48th (32.8)

12th (47.3)

Passing Yards

108th (173.8)

18th (308.0)

Red Zone Con

122nd (9.52)

19th (14.67)

Rushing Yards

18th (238.3)

37th (194.3)

Red Zone Defensive

5th (6.71)

9th (6.41)

First Downs Gained

35th (86)

96th (66)

3First Downs Gained. %

78th (38.6%)

34th (46.9%)

4You can also follow Deputy Editor Matthew McGavic at. %

75th (50.0%)

1st (100.0%)

Special Teams Statistics. %

51st (88.9%)

74th (84.6%)

Turnovers Lost

52nd (4)

1st (0)

Interceptions Thrown

34th (2)

1st (0)

Fumbles Lost

61st (2)

1st (0)

Tackles For Loss Allowed

41st (4.25)

9th (3.00)

Sacks Allowed

73rd (1.75)

11th (0.67)

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55th (30:42)

34th (31:48)

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

ND

UofL

Total Defense

16th (256.3)

22nd (268.7)

Avg. Time of Possession

17th (4.17)

20th (4.31)

Scoring Defense

10th (9.8)

13th (11.0)

Passing Yards Allowed

18th (135.3)

44th (181.3)

Rushing Yards Allowed

51st (121.0)

18th (87.3)

Rushing Yards Allowed

29th (56)

14th (46)

3rd Down Defensive %

10th (24.5%)

9th (23.8%)

4th Down Defensive %

8th (16.7%)

95th (66.7%)

Yards Per Completion %

36th (75.0%)

14th (66.7%)

Turnovers Gained

41st (6)

73rd (4)

Interceptions Caught

8th (6)

78th (2)

Fumbles Recovered

N/A (0)

44th (2)

TFL Per Game

118th (4.0)

7th (8.7)

Sacks Per Game

46th (2.25)

14th (3.00)

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

ND

UofL

Net Punting

68th (38.78)

103rd (36.29)

Avg. Kickoff Return

83rd (18.00)

125th (12.00)

Avg. Kickoff Return Def.

44th (17.33)

77th (19.00)

Avg. Punt Return

82nd (7.00)

74th (7.89)

Avg. Punt Return Def.

75th (7.80)

20th (1.00)

Field Goal Attempts

4-6

3-6

PAT

17-17

19-19

Key: National Rank out of 133 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 32.4 percent chance to win against the Fighting Irish. Louisville has an FPI rating of 15.7 (11th overall), whereas Notre Dame has an FPI rating of 19.7 (9th overall).

- SP+ Prediction: Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 35.33 percent chance to take down the Fighting Irish. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 17.2 (12th overall), whereas Notre Dame has an FPI rating of 21.1 (11th overall).

- th Down Con: Per the Kelley Ford ratings, the Cardinals have a 25 percent chance to take down the Fighting Irish. Louisville has a KFord rating of 15.9 (13th overall), whereas Notre Dame has a KFord rating of 21.5 (8th overall).

- College Football Insiders Prediction: Per College Football Insiders' IPR metric, the Cardinals have a 39.8 percent chance to take down the Fighting Irish. Louisville has an IPR rating of 61.5 (13th overall), whereas Notre Dame has an IPR rating of 66.5 (9th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Red Zone Defensive.

(College Football Insiders Prediction)

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Matthew McGavic

MATTHEW MCGAVIC

McGavic is a 2016 Sport Administration graduate of the University of Louisville, and a native of the Derby City. He has been covering the Cardinals in various capacities since 2017, with a brief stop in Atlanta, Ga. on the Georgia Tech beat. He is also a co-host of the 'From The Pink Seats' podcast on the State of Louisville network. Video gamer, bourbon drinker and dog lover. Find him on Twitter at @Matt_McGavic

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